Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.249544 0.294054 0.341468 0.395457 0.454951 0.518247 0.590411
2024-10-13 0.185181 0.244265 0.311747 0.393412 0.488466 0.594575 0.720929
2024-10-20 0.141042 0.208037 0.289827 0.394386 0.521917 0.669987 0.852446
2024-10-27 0.112728 0.185229 0.279416 0.405802 0.566166 0.758405 1.001766
2024-11-03 0.091660 0.167540 0.272134 0.418785 0.611381 0.848580 1.155598
2024-11-10 0.074979 0.152515 0.265711 0.431009 0.654874 0.937129 1.309433
2024-11-17 0.057119 0.131735 0.247984 0.425347 0.673373 0.993628 1.424069
2024-11-24 0.045709 0.118769 0.239551 0.430995 0.706030 1.068178 1.562361
2024-12-01 0.034468 0.103129 0.224532 0.425067 0.721423 1.119552 1.671205
2024-12-08 0.024237 0.086178 0.204604 0.409332 0.721141 1.148877 1.750907
2024-12-15 0.019480 0.079409 0.200939 0.418005 0.755616 1.225397 1.893610
2024-12-22 0.013855 0.068300 0.187610 0.409646 0.763967 1.265515 1.987880
2024-12-29 0.011777 0.066047 0.191062 0.429684 0.816399 1.369380 2.171672
2025-01-05 0.008550 0.058765 0.183388 0.430070 0.838598 1.431021 2.299192
2025-01-12 0.006186 0.052807 0.177399 0.432661 0.863943 1.497389 2.434082
2025-01-19 0.004851 0.049844 0.177413 0.445778 0.906065 1.588528 2.604412
2025-01-26 0.003824 0.047430 0.178239 0.460210 0.950457 1.683518 2.781165
2025-02-02 0.002953 0.044994 0.178593 0.473610 0.993372 1.776932 2.956823
2025-02-09 0.001780 0.039108 0.169315 0.467798 1.004341 1.823142 3.066480
2025-02-16 0.001183 0.035941 0.166389 0.473959 1.035061 1.898974 3.218754
2025-02-23 0.000605 0.031053 0.157676 0.467719 1.044416 1.942614 3.325469
2025-03-02 0.000200 0.025207 0.144516 0.450974 1.034793 1.956861 3.389770
2025-03-09 0.000101 0.023537 0.143790 0.460263 1.070338 2.040470 3.554904